Macroeconomic Outlook

Macroeconomic headwinds are predicted to persist until mid-2026.

A scenario where the unemployment rate hits 4%, leading the Fed to restart money printing, causes inflation to return by late 2025, and results in a longer bear market in 2026.

Within the next 1-2 years (from Jan 2024), goods and service inflation and wage inflation will become very low or negative, leading central banks to cut interest rates quickly. This will cause asset and house prices to increase massively, even as the economy and living standards for the majority worsen.